District 5 Update: Loraine's Lead Grows

09 November 2026

The county's November 9 update added 1,810 votes in District 5, all of them mail ballots. Adam Loraine's lead grew from 53 votes on November 6 to 146. This post updates the projections from A Too Early Estimate of District 5, which explains how they work.

Every scenario still has Loraine winning, now by 155 to 212 votes. To catch up, Yates Sahae would need about 55% to 60% of the remaining votes cast for her or Loraine, depending on how many ballots are left. She hasn't won more than 47% of any batch since election night.

Loraine leads by 146 votes

District 5 votes counted through the county's 4:29 PM update on November 9.

Loraine 2,717 40.7% Yates Sahae 2,571 38.5% Johnson 1,383 20.7%

Source: San Mateo County Elections Office. 7,638 ballots counted, 57.2% of registered voters.

The new ballots favored Loraine again

This batch was ten times bigger than previous counts and showed Loraine winning 53.3% of the votes cast for him or Yates Sahae. It's the third update in a row of late mail ballots to lean toward Loraine. Yates Sahae won precinct 26054, her strongest, with 58% of the votes for the two of them. Loraine won the other five precincts that reported new ballots, with 55% to 70%.

More ballots than 2022

The count is running ahead of 2022. Six days after Election Day, the county had counted ballots from 57.2% of District 5's registered voters. At the same point in 2022, it was 51.4%.

The 2026 count is ahead of 2022's pace

Share of District 5's registered voters whose ballots had been counted, by days after Election Day.

20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 2026: 57.2%November 9 2022: 51.4%November 14 2022 final: 64.7% Election night0 3 days 6 9 12 15 days

Source: San Mateo County Elections Office releases. 2022 uses that year's District 5 precincts. The 2022 count was certified December 8.

If the rest of this year's count keeps the same pace relative to 2022, turnout would finish around 72%. That would leave about 2,000 ballots to count, not the 1,000 that 2022 turnout implies.

Updated scenarios

The scenarios work the same way as before, starting from the new count and assuming 2022 turnout.

Loraine wins every scenario, by 155 to 212 votes

Projected final margin over Yates Sahae from the November 9 count.

At the current rate 3,069 vs. 2,914 Loraine by 155 At the mail-ballot rate 3,078 vs. 2,914 Loraine by 163 At the 2022 rate 3,076 vs. 2,908 Loraine by 168 Like 2022's late ballots 3,098 vs. 2,886 Loraine by 212

Projection from the county's November 9 count, assuming 2022 turnout.

With turnout between 70% and 75%, which current turnout seems to be point towards, the margins grow to between 167 and 303 votes.

How sure is this?

Much more sure than last week.

To pass Loraine, Yates Sahae would need 60% of the remaining votes for the two of them at 2022 turnout. If turnout finishes near 72%, she'd need about 55%. She won 55% of one batch of mail ballots on election night. Since then she has won 47%, 36% and 47% of the three later batches.

Chance alone gives each projection a margin of error of about 50 votes either way at 2022 turnout, or 70 at 72% turnout. Every scenario is now outside that range. The bigger unknown is still how the remaining ballots lean, but they would have to break for Yates Sahae more clearly than any batch has since election night.

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A Too Early Estimate of District 5